Thursday, July 21, 2011

More Not-So-Accu-Weather Stats

Continuing to monitor the incredibly changeable Accuweather weather forecasts for Marietta, just to investigate my hypothesis that not only are their 15-day forecasts inaccurate, they're also totally inconsistent with their own forecasts as each day passes.

7/27 - 94° (same as the adjusted forecast from yesterday, 8° higher than Wednesday's forecast)
7/28 - 93° (a sudden 8° forecast jump from yesterday)
7/29 - 92° (an 8° forecast jump from yesterday--gee, the cool weather forecast is fading away!)
7/30 - 95° (12° higher than yesterday's forecast, 15° higher than Wednesday's forecast!)
7/31 - 81° (4° lower than yesterday's forecast, 1° higher than Wednesday's--and as I had mentioned before, the cool weather is always lurking at the end of the 15-day forecast window)
8/1 - 78° (6° lower than yesterday's forecast, 2° lower than Wednesday's forecast)
8/2 - 82° (3° higher than yesterday's forecast, 6° higher than Wednesday's)
8/3 - 83° (7° higher than yesterday's forecast!)
8/4 - 86° (well, at least there's not danging the mid-70s meteorological carrot before us 15 days out)

And this all tends to support my theory that there isn't the slightest bit of accuracy and/or science to a 15 day forecast--pure guesswork, apparently. And with temperature swings as much as 12° in the forecast temps for the same date, no matter what the weather is, they can point to one of their guesses and claim it was right.

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