Tuesday, August 02, 2011

I Think I've Made My Point....

...regarding AccuWeather's inaccurate forecasting, but I'll end this little analytical experiment with the results for 8/1 and 8/2 (forgot to post yesterday's results).

8/1 - 80 - 84 - 78 - 79 - 79 - 84 - 93 - 94 - 96 -

8/2 - 76 - 79 - 82 - 88 - 86 - 84 - 97 - 94 - 95 -

And the real temperatures? 8/1 topped out at 83° thanks to some unexpected cloud cover and a surprise rainstorm. 8/2 came in at 89° and sunny.

Now take a look a the forecasts. There was a a 17° spread in the 8/1 forecasts and a 19° spread in the 8/2 forecasts The closer we got to the actual date, the more inaccurate the forecast was; in these cases, they actually had two days' worth of guesses that were pretty close, but they seem to be just that--random guesses that they abandoned a day or so later.

If you ask me to guess your age and I start throwing out years in a 17 to 19 year range, odds are I'll get it right at one point or another, but I'm not going to be dishonest enough to claim that there's a science to this system. Too bad AccuWeather isn't so frank about their weather guesswork.

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