InAccuWeather

Another day, a lot more missed forecasts.

Today's high was 87 (in fairness, it might have gone higher had a cloud front and scattered rain not moved in at about 2:30, dropping temperatures into the low 80s and the high 70s for the last part of the afternoon). Here's what AccuWeather forecast for today:

80 - 83 - 95 - 91 - 94 - 94 - 94 - 95 - 96

And once again, the actual high was very, very near the midpoint of the lowest high forecast and the highest high forecast--and once again, AccuWeather never once forecast this as the high. The shotgunned all around it, but thus far not a single one of their forecasts has been accurate. Not one.

Pretty pathetic, isn't it? And these guys have the audacity to include "Accu" as part of their name...

Jobs for All...

Steve Jobs, that is.

I see in a recent news report that Apple actually has more cash on hand than the US government. That got me thinking about the benefits of having Apple take over the government; maybe having Steve Jobs running the US wouldn't be so bad after all.

(1) The US government would be offered in an improved version for a lower price every twelve to sixteen months.

(2) We'd each be able to buy the level of government we wanted.

(3) For the first twelve months, if the government failed to work, there would be geniuses on hand to fix it or to advise us on what to do to make it function properly.

(4) The general trend would be for the government to get smaller and lighter as time went on.

(5) We could invest money in the government and we'd actually make a profit on it.

(6) When the government held press conferences, people would be so eager to hear what they had to say that they'd have people fighting for the right to live-blog the event.

(7) Best of all, the government would just work.

More Forecasting Folly

July 29th came and went, and with it came a high temperature of 87 degrees once again ( I thought it would get up to 88, but some afternoon clouds held us at the 87 mark). So what were AccuWeather's forecasts for 7/29?

80 - 84 - 92 - 93 - 93 - 93 - 92 - 94

Once again, their forecasts ran the gamut from 7 degrees too low to 7 degrees too high--but never once did they forecast 87. Even more interesting, they get no better at weather forecasting as the date gets closer. They're just as far off a day or two before as they were a week earlier... just in the other direction.

Must be nice to have a job in which the only accuracy you display is in your trademarked company name...

An Unpleasant Anniversary

Today is July 29th (just barely--I happened to be up past midnight, working at the computer, when I noticed the date). It was four years ago on this date that I got a call from Floyd Medical Center in Rome informing me that Dad was there, and that he had collapsed at WalMart. I won't run through all the details of that horrible day; you can read about it and the subsequent sorrows by going back to my 2007 blog entries.

But I will always envy my sister Kimberly on this date. You see, back on July 29th, 2007, she and Cole and Jessica had a very pleasant lunch with Dad--they got to see him smiling and happy on that last day, they got to talk with him, they got to do all the things that I wish I could have done one more time. I will always envy that.

I miss you, Dad. You left us far, far too soon...

More Weather Numbers

I'm not going to continue to list AccuWeather forecasts, but I will do a running tally of their predictions vs. weather reality for a few more days.

Here were their predicted highs for 7/28:
80 - 81 - 93 - 92 - 92 - 92 - 90 - 92 - 95

And what was the high? 87

Once again, almost exactly in the middle of their high and low forecasts. And once again, it was a temperature they never forecast--they had a few temperatures significantly lower and then a whole bunch higher, but I'd give them a FAIL on this forecast, too. Keep it up, AccuWeather, and you're going to have to change your name!

Weathering the Data

Okay, let's take a look at the "accu" part of AccuWeather.

High temperature for Marietta 30066 - 89° (measured with three separate thermometers--two wireless and one standard thermometer, all located outdoors but out of direct sunlight). Forecast highs:

82 - 94 - 94 - 95 - 93 - 93 - 93 - 95

So, by predicting a 13-degree range between the highest high prediction andt he lowest low, they managed to more or less miss it totally, since it was almost exactly midway between the two extremes. At no point did they ever forecast 89.° I'd say that they failed the "Accu" part today.

Now, as for their forecasts:

7/28 - 95° (3° higher than yesterday)
7/29 - 94° (2° warmer than yesterday)
7/30 - 96° (1° warmer yesterday)
7/31 - 96° (1° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/1 - 96° (2° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/2 - 95° (2° warmer than yesterday's forecast!)
8/3 - 95° (5° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/4 - 96° (16° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/5 - 91° (9° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/6 - 97° (14° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/7 - 93° (6° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/8 - 96° (8° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/9 - 97° (5° warmer than yesterday's forecast!)
8/10 - 88° (and once again, the coolest forecast temperature is 15 days out)

Fourteen and sixteen degree jumps in forecast temperatures? Over a 24 hour period? If that doesn't qualify as random guessing, nothing much does...

More Meteorology

I'm aware that some of you are horribly bored by this, but rest easy--I'll be done with this weather stuff in a few days. I just want to see if my suspicion is correct and AccuWeather's 15-day forecast is nothing more than random guesswork.

Now let's look at the forecasts as of 7/26 (I'm not posting 'til 7/27, but I did a text capture of these in mid-afternoon Tuesday).

7/27 - 95° (2° higher htan yesterday)
7/28 - 92° (2° higher than yesterday)
7/29 - 92° (1° cooler than yesterday)
7/30 - 95° (2° warmer yesterday)
7/31 - 95° (2° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/1 - 94° (1° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/2 - 94° (3° cooler than yesterday's forecast!)
8/3 - 90° (3° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/4 - 77° (6° cooler than yesterday's forecast--and where di these 70s come from?)
8/5 - 82° (4° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/6 - 83° (7° cooler than yesterday's forecast)
8/7 - 87° (1° cooler than yesterday's forecast)
8/8 - 88° (1° warmer than yesterday's forecast)
8/9 - 92° (a very hot forecast for 15 days out--surprising!)

Tomorrow I'll actually compare the 7/27 forecasts for the last week or so with the real temperature and see how far-ranging their forecasts were, and when they were closest to the real temperature.

Weather or Not You're Interested

Another day's worth of Accuweather forecasts; with 7/27 only two days away, they're starting to settle in on a more specific forecast, but there's still time for them to change everything.

7/27 - 93° (same as yesterday)
7/28 - 90° (2° cooler than yesterday)
7/29 - 93° (same as yesterday)
7/30 - 94° (same as yesterday)
7/31 - 92° (2° cooler than yesterday's forecast)
8/1 - 93° (9° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/2 - 97° (13° higher than yesterday's forecast!)
8/3 - 87° (11° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/4 - 83° (3° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/5 - 78° (9° lower than yesterday's forecast)
8/6 - 90° (3° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/7 - 88° (wow--there are no cool temperatures in AccuWeather's forecasdt, which is a first!)
8/8 - 87° (another aberration for AccuWeather--the cool day comes 12 days out, not 15)

More Meteorology

Another day of AccuWeather forecasts... and as I had predicted ahead of time, as we get closer to 7/27 (the first day I began tracking in my blog posts), the warmer the forecast is. Here are today's forecasts for 7/27 through 8/7:

7/27 - 93° (same as yesterday)
7/28 - 92° (same as yesterday)
7/29 - 93° (same as yesterday)
7/30 - 94° (same as yesterday)
7/31 - 94° (11° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/1 - 84° (5° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/2 - 84° (2° lower than yesterday's forecast)
8/3 - 86° (same as yesterday)
8/4 - 80° (same as yesterday)
8/5 - 87° (10° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/6 - 87° (11° higher than yesterday's forecast)
8/7 - 88° (wow--there are no cool temperatures in AccuWeather's forecasdt, which is a first!)

Summer Samhain

Forgot to note this last week: on Sunday, July 17th, I saw the first Halloween candy of the season (can I say "of the season" when it's still the middle of the summer?). At the local Walgreen's, they were putting out bags of Brach's Autumn Mix--the cousin to candy corn that includes pumpkins, corn, and other autumn-themed candy. If you want to be a stickler, I guess we can call this "autumn candy" rather than "Halloween candy," but seeing as how they only put it out during the pre-Halloween period and they mark it down the day after Halloween along with all the other Halloween candy, I think I can make a convincing case that this was indeed Halloween candy.